02012nas a2200253   4500000000100000008004100001260001700042100002600059700001300085700001900098700001900117700001400136700002000150700001400170700001600184700001200200700001500212245009200227250001500319300001100334490000700345520136000352020004601712       2011                            d  c-482229393071 aSherrington Catherine1 aClose J.1 aTiedemann Anne1 aBarraclough E.1 aTaylor M.1 aO'Rourke Sandra1 aKurrle S.1 aHerbert Rob1 aLord S.1 aCumming R.00aA simple tool predicted probability of falling after aged care inpatient rehabilitation  a2011/01/21  a779-860 v643 a<p>
OBJECTIVE: To develop and internally validate a falls prediction tool for people being discharged from inpatient aged care rehabilitation. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: Prospective cohort study. Possible predictors of falls were collected for 442 aged care rehabilitation inpatients at two hospitals. RESULTS: One hundred fifty participants fell in the 3 months after discharge from rehabilitation (34% of 438 with follow-up data). Predictors of falls were male gender (odds ratio [OR] 2.32, 95% confidence interval [CI]=1.00-4.03), central nervous system medication prescription (OR 2.04, 95% CI=1.00-3.30), and increased postural sway (OR 1.93, 95% CI=1.00-3.26). This three-variable model was adapted for clinical use by unit weighting (i.e., a score of 1 for each predictor present). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for this tool was 0.69 (95% CI=0.64-0.74, bootstrap-corrected AUC=0.69). There was no evidence of lack of fit between prediction and observation (Hosmer-Lemeshow P=0.158). CONCLUSION: After external validation, this simple tool could be used to quantify the probability with which an individual will fall in the 3 months after an aged care rehabilitation stay. It may assist in the discharge process by identifying high-risk individuals who may benefit from ongoing assistance or intervention.
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