BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: It is necessary to develop an effective and low-cost screening tool for identifying Chinese people at high risk of stroke. Transcranial Doppler ultrasound (TCD) is a powerful predictor of stroke in the pediatric sickle cell disease population, as demonstrated in the STOP trial. Our study was conducted to determine the prediction value of peak systolic velocities as measured by TCD on subsequent stroke risk in a prospective cohort of the general population from Beijing, China. METHODS: In 2002, a prospective cohort study was conducted among 1392 residents from 11 villages of the Shijingshan district of Beijing, China. The cohort was scheduled for follow up with regard to incident stroke in 2005, 2007, and 2012 by a study team comprised of epidemiologists, nurses, and physicians. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to determine the factors associated with incident stroke. RESULTS: Participants identified by TCD criteria as having intracranial stenosis had a 3.6-fold greater risk of incident stroke (hazard ratio (HR) 3.57, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.86-6.83, P<0.01) than those without TCD evidence of intracranial stenosis. The association remained significant in multivariate analysis (HR 2.53, 95% CI 1.31-4.87) after adjusting for other risk factors or confounders. Older age, cigarette smoking, hypertension, and diabetes mellitus remained statistically significant as risk factors after controlling for other factors. CONCLUSIONS: The study confirmed the screening value of TCD among the general population in urban China. Increasing the availability of TCD screening may help identify subjects as higher risk for stroke.
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